A record March heat wave that occurred amid historic snow drought means that most of New Mexico will experience above-normal wildfire risk over the next two months, according to a new outlook forecasters released this week.
The National Interagency Fire Center’s new monthly outlook details the severity of the March heat wave across New Mexico and the West. For example, in Albuquerque, forecasters noted, temperatures hit 90 degrees on March 21, six weeks earlier than the previous record of May 3, set in 1947.
The heat wave contributed to expanded drought conditions across the state and resulted in an early melt-off of an already minimal snow pack across New Mexico and the rest of the West. The melt-off occurred between four and six weeks earlier than normal, according to the outlook, at a time when most locations across the West usually experience their highest snow pack levels of the year.
All those factors contribute to above-normal wildfire risk through April in most of New Mexico, excluding the southwestern and very northwestern parts of the state. In May and June, all but eastern New Mexico will be more wildfire-prone than usual, according to the forecast, before expected monsoons restore the state to normal wildfire risk.
The wildfire conditions have prompted multiple state, local and federal agencies to impose fire restrictions. Officials with the Santa Fe and Lincoln national forests this week both announced Stage 1 fire restrictions, which include prohibitions on building campfires or smoking outside of enclosed vehicles, among other constraints.
Additional restrictions are in effect across State Forestry lands, as well as the Mescalero Apache Reservation and Carlsbad Caverns National Park, according to a New Mexico State Forestry dashboard.
High winds and low humidity also prompted the National Weather Service in Albuquerque early Friday to declare a Red Flag Warning across much of eastern New Mexico, where at least six small fire starts have been detected in recent days. According to local and state officials, all of them were contained or mostly contained as of Friday morning.
According to the Southwest Coordination Center, 270 wildfires had burned more than 7,000 acres across the state as of April 1, and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, in a social media post on Thursday, warned that more are expected during a wildfire season that has “arrived early.”
She called on residents to identify evacuation routes in advance should a wildfire come near their homes, as well as prepare a “go-bag,” sign up for county emergency alerts and clear dry brush and debris from at least 30 feet away from structures.
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